Dec 29, 2010

DOUBLE STANDARDS

When the Government sells land to the developers it keeps it's reserve price top secret. 
In en bloc sales the reserve price is an open secret.

In Government land sales NO PRIVATE SALES are allowed, it's all STRICTLY by public tender.

In en bloc sales, the sale is through public tender , auction or private sale. From experience we know the tender is a statutory exercise, a sham, the real deal is done privately, behind doors, at midnight, in a very non-transparent manner.


Dec 28, 2010

Setting the Reserve Price

Anonymous said...
As a layman, I would like to do a simple calculation to show TC's land value based on the tender result of Waterview site which is located at Tampines Ave 1/10 and also estimate the RP of TC.
Below is the news:
------------------
Sim Lian Land Pte Ltd has won the tender for the residential site at Tampines Ave 1/Tampines Ave 10.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) awarded the company the tender after it submitted the highest bid for the site.

The 31,740.4 square meter land parcel was offered for sale on a 99-year lease. Sim Lian Land put in a $302 million bid, translating to $4,530.79 psm/gfa. The site has a maximum permissible gross floor area (GFA) of 66,655 square meters.
-----------------------------------------------

Waterview's land value is $4,530.79 psm/gfa which is equal to $421 psf/gfa.

TC's gfa is (702,157 sqft * 2.8) = 1,966,039 sqft

If we use the same land value of $421 psf/gfa, then TC's land value is 1,966,039 sqft * $421 = $827,702,419 which is equal to ($827,702,419 / 560) $1,478,040 per unit.

I believe TC is in a better location than Waterview.

A 5% increase will translate to $1,551,952 per unit.

A 10% increase will translate to $1,625,844 per unit.

The land value for TC is in the range of 1.55 m to 1.65m per unit as at now.

For en bloc sales, we must also factor in the price increase at the end of 2 years.

I think $1.6m to 1.7m is a fair estimation of RP for TC.

Regards
December 28, 2010

Excellent

I have done a quick LAYMAN computation of DC/DP for (a) increase in intensity and (b) upgrading of lease tenure from 78 years to 99 years based on Residential GPR 2.8 using SLA examples

Whilst (a) is pretty straightforward and the major part of the DC/DP,  (b)  is complete guesswork , and I have no way of knowing in advance what market value the Chief Valuer will set on a 99-year lease based on residential use at GPR 2.8. I can do a stab at it by using the 2007 figure but really, I need something more concrete than that.

Until I can get a feel for a probable value - I shall not even hazard a guess at the total DC/DP as yet. But looking at the range of probabilities from $130m to $180m

$1.7 million is about right

In the media

Dec 21, 2010

I told you so!


Additional Info:

Blk 118  and the new owner is from the private sector.

Interesting Trend..... more buyers are from the private sector as shown by the following chart.  This trend will push the resale prices even higher, as private owners typically have deeper pockets than HDB upgraders. As I have said before, the 5 year moratorium on reselling a HDB will also turn potential HDB buyers away from the HDB market and into the mass market properties such as ours.
Prices will therefore continue to rise. 




*Resale data is only available from after privatisation in 2002.

Dec 20, 2010

Ponder this...

No doubt, the pro en bloc group will latch on to the recent newspaper article about how the developers' land banks are running low and how it  is therefore a good time to go en bloc. This is their blinkered vision and not the entire picture. Developers recently benefited from the Residential Property (Amendment) Bill Nov 2010 - which allowed them to hold onto their land for longer.

Foreign developers – introduction of a new extension charge framework

The first group of key amendments relates to foreign developers who are given approval under the RPA to acquire or retain land for residential development. They are required to complete their residential development within a stipulated Project Completion Period, which is currently five years. They are then required to sell off all units in the residential development within two years from the issue of the Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP). This is to prevent them from hoarding or speculating in residential land. If they fail to meet the stipulated timelines, we may forfeit their Banker’s Guarantee, which is pegged at 10% of the land price.  

     With the amendments, the Controller of residential property will be empowered to levy an extension charge for any extension of time beyond the project completion period. The extension charge framework is essentially the same as the extension premium scheme that applies to the sale of sites under the Government Land Sales programme today. The key advantage of the extension charge framework is to make the cost of delay apparent to the developers and encourage them to complete the developments in a timely manner.      

     We will apply the same penalty regime and extension charge framework to Singapore entities which are given approval to convert to foreign entities and to retain their residential land for development and sale; as well as to foreign entities that have been granted approval to change the use of their land to residential use on the basis that they will develop the land and sell the units.

Couple that with the HOLDING POWER of developers to release their units slowly onto the market - sometimes they just prefer to rent them out  as the market climbs higher.

So, the developers are still in a cushy position and are in no rush to replenish at one go.

11,849 homes left unsold in launched private projects

Sat, Dec 18, 2010 
By Uma Shankari

DEVELOPERS are sitting on close to 12,000 unsold units in private residential projects that have already been launched.
Data compiled by The Business Times using information from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) shows that as at end-November this year, developers had a stockpile of 11,849 units in projects that they have already started marketing - that is, projects in which at least one unit has been sold.
While some developments have just a handful of units left unsold, a total of 138 launched projects scattered across the island have 10 or more unsold units left. And of these, 28 projects have more than 100 unsold units each.
The more recently-launched projects include Kheng Leong's The Minton; Frasers Centrepoint's Flamingo Valley; and City Developments' Residences At W Singapore Sentosa Cove - all of which were put on the market in the first half of this year when sentiment was buoyant.
But six projects with more than 100 unsold units each have been on the market for at least three years. These include prime developments such as Keppel Land's Reflections at Keppel Bay; SC Global Developments' Hilltops; Allgreen Properties' The Cascadia; and Wheelock Properties' Scotts Square.
The 11,849 units are held by the entire range of both big and small developers and include landed projects, though the majority are condominium developments.

Market observers say the stockpile could have been accumulated as developers typically roll out units in large developments in phases.
Those with strong holding power may also hold back some units in their projects as part of a larger marketing strategy. Keppel Land, for instance, did this with its Caribbean At Keppel Bay condominium.
>




But the ample supply of ready-to-buy homes should show prospective homebuyers that there is no need to rush to pick up units in new launches, said another industry veteran.
Homebuyers snapped up 1,909 new private homes in November even as developers launched a strong supply of 2,329 new homes for sale. The strong demand from buyers took the total sales volume for 2010 to a record 15,025 units - even higher than the then-record 14,811 homes sold in 2007 during the last property boom.

'The fact that we have recovered so quickly from the financial crisis has given a lot of false confidence to many people with money,' the industry veteran said. 'They think that it is the right time to jump into property.'

In October, URA said that at the end of Q3 2010, there was a total supply of 64,358 uncompleted units of private housing from projects in the pipeline. Of these, 33,771 units were still unsold. The numbers include both launched and unlaunched projects.
But data compiled using URA's monthly update on the number of units launched, sold and unsold in residential projects in Singapore, released yesterday, showed that as at end-November, there were 11,849 units left unsold in launched projects.

This article was first published in The Business Times.

Dec 9, 2010

Collective Sale of Tampines Court

There have been rumors made about how an EOGM for a collective sale is imminent. I was asked if I had heard the 'good news' by a fellow resident. Alas, I think his jubilation might be a little bit premature as the en bloc group is still only procuring the necessary signatures for a proper requisition. They are possibly inept at the job  but I have no doubt they will achieve their goal. They are hoping for an EOGM in January, so look out for an announcement soon.

They have taken an inordinately long time getting the necessary 20%. - seeing as they started months ago. The flipper, property agents et al have been canvassing  non stop, knocking on doors, walking around, making cold calls.   Could they be possibly saying something like:-
  • En bloc is inevitable (no it isn't)
  • Everybody is interested (no they aren't)
  • The en bloc will go through for sure (how do they know?)
  • The new rules make everything safe (rubbish)
  • We have your best interests at heart (more rubbish)
  • The lifts have a 25/30 year lifespan only (no they don't)
  • The BCA requires that lifts be replaced (no it doesn't)
  • We need only a few more signatures (an agent's favourite sales pitch)
  • Now is a good time to sell (you never can tell)
I would like to take issue with a corner cutting measure made by the pro-en bloc group. They have not done an estate-wide poll to gauge the level of support, preferring instead to gather the bare 20% and not bother to find out the views of the rest. Perhaps they are afraid that the level might only be hovering around 40% - in which case it would be pointless to go ahead. There is no LTSA requirement to conduct such a poll,  but it is something I would have expected a conscientious group of owners to have done, especially as the estate has gone through one bruising en bloc attempt already.

But pro-enblocers are generally not the conscientious type.  The flippers want to turn a quick profit. The backers tend to have pressing financial reasons to sell.

Our Minister of law, Mr. Shanmugam had something to say on the issue in the Second reading of the LTSA Amendment Bill:

"Our view is that such repeated attempts especially frivolous ones should be discouraged.  If there is no prospect of an en bloc sale succeeding, then owners should not be harassed, nor should owners be worn down or be subjected to attrition tactics.  The owner's right to live in peace and not be subjected to repeated attempts should be respected."
 
"Now, really, there can be no objection in principle to require that before you restart the entire process, you have to make sure that you are going to succeed."

 "Yes, we could do that, but there is the other aspect which I have emphasised, which is in a development, people if they have made their views extremely clear, and there is no realistic prospect of success, should not be bothered again and again."

Holding an EOGM does not automatically mean a sale committee will be formed, it will all depend on the wishes of the simple majority (50%+1) of those attending or by proxy. So it is vital that as many owners as possible should attend for it to be a true reflection of the estate's  sentiment and direction.

Dec 3, 2010

GETTING SMALLer and smaller.........

PLEASE NOTE THE POSTS UNDER THE REPLACEMENT COST LABEL ARE OLD POSTS AND HAVE NOT BEEN UPDATED IN A LONG, LONG TIME

Average home sizes shrink

With the development of shoebox apartments and a bigger proportion of smaller units in condo developments, the average size of non-landed homes used to estimate housing supply in the GLS Programme has shrunk.
To arrive at the average size for every home assumed, The Business Times chose sites by location and then divided each of their gross floor area (GFA) by the number of potential homes estimated by the government for every site.
BT said a change in the average home size was initially introduced for sites located in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) in the 2H2010 GLS Programme and extended to include the Outside Central Region (OCR) in the 1H2011 Programme.
Based on BT’s comparison, the average size per home for non-landed residential sites fell from around 110 sq m in the 1H2010 GLS Programme to about 100 sq m in the 2H2010 Programme and 90 sq m in the 1H2011 for residential sites in the RCR, which includes Alexandra Road, Stirling Road and Bishan.
Meanwhile, for sites in the OCR, where suburban condo developments are located, the average housing unit size did not change until the 1H2011 programme.
A spokesperson for the URA said it “regularly reviews the space standards, that is, gross floor area per housing unit, used to estimate the number of housing units that can be generated from GLS sites for residential developments . . . The review takes into account the size of residential units in housing projects which have obtained planning approval.”
“The space standards, which vary for different locations, are used as a guide only. The actual number of residential units on the GLS sites will depend on the actual development plans of the developers.”
Market watchers noted that a series of projects with a large number of shoebox units started in RCR locations such as the Guillemard area, Alexandra Road and Rangoon Road. Since then, shoebox units have appeared in other locations including Eunos and Kembangan, which are categorised OCR, and spread to the Core Central Region (CCR) like Killiney and River Valley.
Joseph Tan, executive director of CB Richard Ellis (CBRE), said the proportion of units below 1,000 sq ft has increased lately even in more mainstream condo developments. “In city-fringe locations, particularly near MRT stations, up to 50-60 percent of units could be below 1,000 sq ft and the proportion could be even higher in some projects in the CBD,” said Mr. Tan.

Source : PropertyGuru – 2 Dec 2010

Enjoy your spacious home... soon only the very rich can afford to live like you.

Nov 27, 2010

30 sites for private homes

After Aug 30 moves to curb demand, Govt now focusing on increasing supply: Analysts

The Government is releasing more land for private residential development in a move that analysts say is targeted at containing froth in the property market.

The Ministry of National Development yesterday announced it would place 17 sites on the so-called “Confirmed List” of the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme in the first half of next year.

The MND said the sites, which comprise 16 residential sites, including three executive condominium (EC) sites, and one mixed commercial-and-residential location, could yield about 8,100 residential units and would ensure a strong supply of private housing to meet demand.

Another 13 sites will join the “Reserve List”, comprising 12 residential sites including one EC site, and one mixed commercial-and-residential location. Together, they could yield about 6,200 residential units.

In total, the GLS programme for the first half of next year will have 30 sites for residential development, which can generate about 14,300 private residential units. This is higher than the 13,900 private residential units made available in the GLS programme for the second half of this year, the MND said. The increase is due mainly to an increase of 400 units in the Reserve List supply.

Of the 30 sites, 17 are new while the remaining 13 sites are carried over from this year.
Reluctant to take further measures to curb property demand too close on the heels of its Aug 30 measures to cool speculation, the Government is focusing its efforts on replenishing the supply pipeline of new homes, analysts say.

The number of unsold units rose to 33,771 in the third quarter from 32,630 units in the second quarter.

“This is equivalent to about three years of supply, based on an average take-up of about 11,300 units per year over the last three years,” the Monetary Authority of Singapore noted yesterday.

“The placement of so many residential sites on the Confirmed List, as well as the continued provision of residential sites on the Reserve List, show the Government’s intention to ensure that supply keeps up with demand, even as the economy strengthens,” said Mr Li Hiaw Ho, executive director of CBRE Research.

“The sites in close proximity to MRT stations will prove to be popular and are likely to be hotly contested, as are the ones that are situated closer to the city.”

The Government is also releasing more commercial land on the Confirmed List to meet demand for office space. It is releasing two commercial sites: One in Robinson Road, to cater to demand in the central business district, and the other in Paya Lebar Road, which it hopes will facilitate the early development of Paya Lebar Central into an attractive commercial hub to complement the Central Business District.

In addition, a commercial site in Sims Avenue and Tanjong Katong Road will be added to the Reserve List to provide for the growth of Paya Lebar Central into a sizeable and sustainable commercial node, the MND said.

Analysts expect the government to release more land for office use in the Marina Bay area if appetite remains strong after the Grade A office complexes that are currently under construction are taken up.

Two new hotel sites will also be added to the Reserve List.

The first is in Race Course Road, near Little India. The second hotel site is at Kallang Riverside, in an area that has been identified as a new waterfront lifestyle precinct near the coming Sports Hub, which is scheduled to be completed in 2014.
Source : Today – 26 Nov 2010

Nov 23, 2010

D'LEEDON

 SOLD: $762 psf ppr

NEW DEVELOPMENT: $1548 psf average
(as of Dec 2010)

Feast your eyes on what is going up on the the old Farrer Court site! This one will be interesting to follow ... easily another $2 -3 billion bonanza project.



Developer : CapitaLand
Address: 151 King's Road
Tenure : Leasehold 99 Years
Land Area : 838,488 sqft with full condominium facilities
Number of units : 1,715 units
Number of blocks : 7 Tower Blocks of 36 Storeys each,
12 Villas
Expected TOP: 2014







Nov 17, 2010

Latest salvo from the Pariah

WHO'S THE IDIOT Part 1

WHO'S THE IDIOT Part 2

WHO'S THE IDIOT Part 3

Pine Grove Reserve Price & 80% Approval

Pine Grove to en bloc, $1.7b reserve price: report 
THE 99-year leasehold Pine Grove in Ulu Pandan could be up for collective sale again with an estimated reserve price of US$1.7 billion, said Channel NewsAsia yesterday.

The deal, if successful, would be the largest in the collective sales market since Farrer Court changed hands for US$1.34 billion in 2007.

Channel NewsAsia said that property agents have been gathering residents' signatures since November last year, and they have amassed 80 per cent of votes for the collective sale to start. A cooling period is now in place in case residents change their minds.

The 660-unit Pine Grove is a former HUDC estate. Several discussions had taken place between agents and residents to sell the estate in the last few years. The en bloc fever was particularly strong in 2007 as the property market heated up and developers snapped up several estates. But not all residents in Pine Grove were keen on a deal then. A 'Save The Pine Grove' group was even formed to stop the sale process.

The collective sales market took a breather during the financial crisis and has revived recently, but deals have involved mostly smaller estates with more affordable price tags.
Business Times - Fri 19 Nov 2010

Pine Grove residents may be sitting on an enbloc gold mine, but analysts have said realising the dream of a collective sale may be fraught with hurdles.

With a hefty asking price of S$1.7 billion and with more land sites launching soon, developers may pass on the 660-unit property.

Situated along Ulu Pandan Road, Pine Grove has an 80 per cent approval for its third enbloc tender.
And with its location in the prestigious district 21, analysts said an iconic mid-tier to luxury residence complex is an obvious choice.

But creating opulent luxury in a sprawling 890,000-square foot property may be too costly for investors.

Colin Tan, Head of Research and Consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International, said: “If I am the developer, I would be going for big units. The problem is not the dollar per square foot, it is the quantum. The absolute amount may go into millions, so how many individuals can really afford that amount or are willing to risk it just on one project?”

Analysts said Pine Grove’s gross plot ratio of 2.1 will yield too few units for developers to maximise their returns.

By comparison, Laguna Park, with an enbloc reserve price of S$1.14 billion, offers a plot ratio of 2.8.
But despite the red flags, analysts said developers with a longer-term view could look favourably at Pine Grove.

Christina Sim, Director of Investment Capital Markets at Cushman & Wakefield, said: “Our Singapore market is so small and so responsive to external stimulus. And there is also a huge foreign demand out there. It is ideal if a developer buys this maybe for land banking, because the truth is if you take a mid- to long-term view of the real estate market in Singapore, nothing is really very expensive now.”

However, with more land being released under the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme, developers are currently spoilt for choice.

The tendering for such land sites is also more straightforward, compared with enbloc tenders.
Ms Sim said: “Certainly for collective sales, the gestation period and the time to have 100 per cent ownership is certainly very long, unlike those developers going for GLS sites; they bid for the site, prepare for it and sell.”

However, analysts said Government land sites no longer offer the prime location and massive size that Pine Grove has.
Source : Channel NewsAsia – 19 Nov 2010

Pine Grove gets 80% vote for en bloc

It could be third time lucky for Pine Grove estate along Ulu Pandan Road.
MediaCorp understands that the condominium’s third attempt at an en bloc sale received the necessary 80 per cent majority approval last Saturday.
According to residents, the reserve price is set at S$1.7 billion, setting the stage for Pine Grove to become Singapore’s largest residential collective sale, beating the 2007 record for Farrer Court.
“It’s a good time to sell because the estate is getting old, and it will be expensive to upgrade the old lifts, sewerage pipes and wiring in future,” said a resident, who declined to be named.
The next stage of the en bloc attempt is the preparation of tender documents, but the votes have to be first audited by the appointed law firm Lee & Lee.
There is also a “cooling off” period where residents who had signed can withdraw their consent to sell within a week.
MediaCorp understands that Jones Lang LaSalle, which is the marketing agent, is unlikely to launch a sale this year, and will likely wait for more favourable market conditions.
“Since 2008, most en bloc sales have been less than S$100 million,” said Nicholas Mak, Executive Director of Research and Consultancy, SLP International. “This shows that developers are now more cautious and the risk appetite is not so high.”
Analysts believe that potential buyers are likely to take a consortium or joint-venture route so as to spread the risk.
A collective sale also faces challenges from a successful Government Land Sales programme.
“Developers sometimes prefer the straight forward government sale of sites,” said Donald Han, vice chairman, Cushman & Wakefield, Singapore. “The collective sale process on the other hand can become protracted.”
Signatures for the sale have been collected from Pine Grove owners over various sessions since 15 November 2009.
The reserve price of S$1.7 billion could work out to between S$2.1 million and S$2.75 million per unit, depending on the size of the apartment and the development charge.
There are 660 units at the former HUDC estate, which covers over 893,000 square feet of land area.
The current record for an en bloc sale is held by Farrer Court, located along Farrer Road, also a former HUDC estate. It was sold in 2007 for S$1.34 billion, and had a development charge of about S$500 million.
Observers said Pine Grove could attract a similar development charge.
Source : Channel NewsAsia – 16 Nov 2010

Nov 10, 2010

Are we in business?

An owner in Tampines Court has alerted me to the following article:
Tampines Court wins tender for Woodgrove Avenue residential site

SINGAPORE : The Housing and Development Board (HDB) has awarded the land parcel at Woodgrove Avenue to Tampines Court, a unit of Far East Organization, for S$105.12 million.

The developer has submitted the highest of the six bids received at the close of the tender on November 4.

The land parcel, which is meant for strata landed or condominium development, has a site area of over 20,900 square metres and a maximum allowable gross floor area of about 29,300 square metres.

Located within Woodlands Town, the site is near Woodlands MRT as well as Woodgrove shopping centre and Causeway Point shopping mall.

The site was launched for public tender on September 22 and has a lease period of 99 years.

The project, which can have an estimated 265 dwelling units, has to be completed 60 months from the date of acceptance of the tender.  
.

Far East top bidder at Woodlands site

.

So, has Tampines Court suddenly developed a business wing none of us know anything about? Are we expanding our portfolio and moving into the property development business? Has, perhaps, the MC gone completely mad with our sinking fund??

.

Well, before you get too excited I have to tell you no, nothing of the kind.

If you cast your minds back to March 2007; you will recall how Tampines Court was undersold to a company called ORCHARD MALL PTE LTD. Now this company was registered on 24 April 2006 in the early days of our first en bloc attempt (a coincidence, don't you think). Well, at the time of it's registration it didn't have any shareholders and had a paid up capital of  $1m dollars. 

After the S&P was signed, two new companies were formed:

1) TAMPINES COURT PTE LTD
Registered 11 May 2007 with a paid up capital of $2.00 
Shareholder: Golden Development Pte Ltd

2) FCL TAMPINES COURT PTE LTD
Registered 21 May 2007 with a paid up capital of $2.00
Shareholder: Frasers Centrepoint Limited

Both these newly formed companies subsequently became the shareholders of Orchard Mall.

So, even though these companies bear our name they have nothing whatsoever to do with us. Tampines Court is not a trade name and even if you think it  bad form for them to continue using these $2 dollar companies registered in our name, as far as I know, there is nothing illegal here.

Nov 8, 2010

Remember how Gillman was sold for a song....

 SOLD: $363 psf ppr
 NEW DEVELOPMENT: $1039 psf
 (at of Dec 2010)

 

 

The Interlace hits high of $1,323 psf

Prices of units at The Interlace hit an all time high of $1,323 psf in October, with apartments released in the first two phases almost sold out. So far, more than 90% of the 590 units released have been sold. In the first phase, 360 units were put up for sale in September last year, and in the second phase, 230 units were released in April this year. In the first phase, prices ranged from $850 to $1,150 psf, and in the second phase, prices ranged from $850 to $1,300 psf.

High-profile homebuyers at The Interlace include CapitaLand’s group CEO Liew Mun Leong, who purchased a penthouse on the 23rd floor for $3.7 million ($1,092 psf), and his son and daughter- in-law, who bought a four-bedroom unit on the 16th floor for $2.4 million ($996 psf) this year. The 1,040-unit condominium, which sits on a sprawling site of over 800,000 sq ft, is set to be an iconic development. Designed by star architect Ole Scheeren, a former partner at the Office for Metropolitan Architecture, The Interlace comprises 31 six-storey apartment blocks stacked to form eight courtyards. Jointly developed by CapitaLand and Hotel Properties Ltd (HPL), The Interlace is built on the former Gillman Heights HUDC estate and is expected to be completed in 2015. The 99-year leasehold condo sits next to the Ayer Rajah Expressway on one side and is just a short walk from the 9km green belt, which makes up the Southern Ridges, covering Mount Faber Park, Telok Blangah Hill Park and Kent Ridge Park.

Andrew Choi, a marketing agent with ERA, notes that the project is popular with families, both Singaporeans and expatriates, given that the units are larger than most new projects these days. The development is near popular educational institutions such as International School Singapore (high school campus) and the National University of Singapore and offices at Telok Blangah Industrial Estate. It is also near the upcoming Labrador Park MRT station on the Circle Line.

The project contains a mix of unit types, starting from two-bedroom apartments of 807 sq ft to penthouses of 6,308 sq ft. Penthouses range from 3,154 to 6,308 sq ft. All the two-bedroom units have been snapped up, according to CapitaLand’s spokeswoman. Choi says he is marketing several two-bedroom units in the sub-sale market at prices ranging from $1,200 to $1,300 psf.

There were three transactions in the week of Oct 5 to 12, two of which were sub-sales in the secondary market, while the other was a new sale from the developer. The new sale was for a 1,001 sq ft unit on the 10th floor of one of the blocks, which was sold for $1.197 million ($1,197 psf).

Meanwhile, one of the sub-sales was for a 2,454 sq ft unit on the 11th floor that changed hands for $2.5 million ($1,030 psf), according to a caveat lodged with URA on Oct 7. The seller had purchased the unit for $2.198 million ($896 psf) from the developer in January this year, representing a 15% capital gain in less than a year.

The second sub-sale involved an 807 sq ft, 12th floor two-bedroom unit that changed hands for $1.068 million, or $1,323psf. The first owner had purchased the property for $944,800 ($1,170 psf) just a year ago, hence seeing a 13% gain.

In terms of average price, $1,323 psf is the highest achieved so far for the project. The last time a unit crossed the $1,300 psf level was for the sale of another 807 sq ft, two- bedroom unit on the 11th floor, which was sold by the developer for $1.05 million ($1,305 psf) in April.
Source : The Edge – 1 Nov 2010

THE INTERLACE HAS ONLY SOLD 433 UNITS SO FAR OUT OF A TOTAL OF 1040. THEY BOUGHT GILLMAN AT $363 PSF PPR AND NOW THEY ARE SELLING AT OVER $1300 PSF. 

A PERFECT EXAMPLE OF AN INCOMPETENT SALE COMMITTEE AND A CLUELESS MAJORITY WHO DID NOT APPRECIATE THE TRUE VALUE OF THE LAND ON WHICH THEIR ESTATE STOOD. IT IS NOT ABOUT AGE, OWNERS SHOULD NOT BE UNDULY WORRIED ABOUT THE LEASE TOP -UP, IT IS NOT A REASON TO SELL RASHLY. THE DIFFERENTIAL PREMIUM IS EASILY ABSORBED - WHAT IS $90M TO THE DEVELOPER WHEN HE IS GOING TO MAKE PERHAPS 2 BILLION IN THE END?


Nov 1, 2010

TC CHART


What can be deduced from the above chart?
  • There was an unprecedented avalanche of units put up for sale post en bloc in 2009 - 2010. 
  • A large supply would normally depress the market price but even so, TC worked against this trend and saw a 63% increase since the pre-en bloc high of $520k in Oct 2006.
  • With supply now showing signs of tapering off; the price should rise even further. 
  • 2010 is not over, and perhaps the $900k threshold will be reached by New Year.
  • TC is not losing value as it ages as there are mitigating influences which push the price upward, namely: size, location, low maintenance fee, convenience and environment and, even though I hate to say it, that elusory 'en bloc potential'.

Oct 30, 2010

CARDIFF COURT



Cardiff Court, a huge D-19 site located near Lorong Chuan and Serangoon MRT station, will be launched for collective sale on Tuesday.
The property is expected to fetch around S$25 million.
This works out to owners getting between S$700,000 and S$1.45 million, depending on the size of their unit.
The 43,490.9 square feet site has 72 years of its lease left, and is zoned for Residential use.
The site has a gross plot ratio of 1.4 and an allowable height of up to 5 storeys.
Meanwhile, its potential gross floor area is 60,887.2 square feet.
This means that the new condominium development could have about 96 apartments with each unit measuring about 600 square feet.
The new condo project is expected to fetch about S$1,100 per square foot when it is launched.
The Tender will close on the 18th of November.
Source : Channel NewsAsia – 25 Oct 2010

So very few 99 year leashold properties have been sold en bloc; I believe only 7 to date:
  • Grangeford Apt (Aug 2007)
  • Farrer Court (Jun 2007)
  • Gillman Heights (Feb 2007)
  • Waterfront View (May 2006)
  • A 144 unit property in Newton (Mar 2006)
  • A 186 unit property in River Valley (Mar 2006)
  • Amberville (Jan 2006)
This makes Cardiff Court's en bloc attempt all the more interesting. The records show that CC was supposedly sold in 2007 for $13.5 million - but I don't know what happened after that, because here it is up for sale again. The records show unit sale activity from 2009 onwards.

Oct 26, 2010

$1m for flat? Not interested

$1m for flat? Not interested
By Desmond Ng

WHAT would you say to a whopping $850,000 profit on the sale of your flat?
Thanks but no thanks, say some owners of the Shunfu Road flats.

This quiet estate off Thomson Road recently hit the headlines when an HUDC flat in Block 315 was sold for a jaw-dropping $1.1 million in July, the highest ever transacted in Bishan for an HDB project. The cash-over-valuation (COV) of about $200,000 is believed to be the highest ever paid. The unit was valued at about $900,000.

That sky-high price prompted another owner to put his unit on sale at an even higher price of $1.28 million.The two units are 1,668 sq ft each with three bedrooms. ERA senior marketing director Sandy Lim was involved in marketing both of them.

The estate, at blocks 314 to 319, is set to be privatised by the end of the year.

Surprised
Most of the residents The New Paper spoke to were surprised that the units breached the $1 million mark. But it seems that amount is still not good enough for them to even consider selling.
Only one of the 10 residents interviewed said he would consider selling at the recently transacted price. Others, like Ms Soh G S, would rather hold on to their homes. The housewife, in her 50s, said she first heard about the $1.1 million sale a few months ago.

She said: "I thought it was just a rumour. But when I found out that it was true, I was surprised that (the unit) got such a high price."

Even during the 1997 peak, prices in the estate never went beyond $800,000, she said.

A check on HDB's website showed that transacted prices for HUDC units in Shunfu ranged from $720,000 last October to $1.1 million last month.Ms Soh added that her family bought their unit from HDB for about $250,000 in 1985. They are the first owners.If she does sell it for $1.1 million, her gross profit would be about $850,000. She said: "If I sell at that price, I would not be able to find a replacement unit of this size and in this location." She likes the area for its amenities - it's a brisk five-minute walk to Marymount MRT station, a wet market/food centre and a 15-minute drive to town.

Ms Soh reckoned that she'd have to pay about $1.7 million for a condo unit of similar size in the area.
"It'll make sense for someone here to sell and downgrade to a smaller unit," she added.

Another original owner, retiree James Sek, said he'll only consider offers of at least $1.5 million.
He explained: "This estate can potentially be sold en bloc in the future. I think I can get a better price then."

Civil servant Mark Tan said that he's now calculating if it's worth selling his unit and buying a smaller flat elsewhere. But he thinks that the Government's cooling measures introduced in August will make it trickier to hit the $1 million mark now. His parents bought their unit for about $250,000.
Said the 48-year-old: "It's indeed tempting. If we can sell in excess of $1.2 million, we'll probably do so."This will unlock some cash for my parents, who are retired."

HUDC flats were built in the 1970s and 1980s as an option for middle-income Singaporean families.
There are 18 HUDC estates here. All, except Braddell View, have been privatised or been identified for privatisation, reported The Straits Times on Wednesday.

Property agent Ms Lim said that when she submitted the paperwork for the $1.1 million unit, a suspicious HDB officer contacted her to verify the information. "The HDB officer called to ask me if I did indeed sell the unit for over $1 million. It was quite funny," she said.

Ms Lim said that response to the sale was very good, with 90 people viewing in just three weeks.
She took about three weeks to close the deal, which is the norm for a popular HDB unit.
The $1.1 million unit was owned by an elderly couple who were the second owners, she said.
They sold this unit - which was left vacant for a few years - to live with their children.
The buyers, a Singaporean couple, are downgrading from their landed property, MsLim said.
The buyers and sellers declined to be interviewed for this article.

Mr Colin Tan, head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec International, said the values in Bishan have gone up partly because of the opening of the MRT's Circle Line.
He said: "But to receive over $1 million for an old project with a shorter lease boggles the mind."

Mr Tan was not surprised that residents there are reluctant to sell because of the high cost of getting a replacement home.
"This is unless they own more than one property," he added.
The New Paper - Oct 11, 2010

My Opinion:
The people who buy such units are buying because of size. This particular couple are reported to be downgrading from a landed property so I surmise they must have been attracted to the generous proportions of the rooms in HUDCs. The recent cooling measures by the government will not have much effect on this group of people - as they are typically buying for occupation rather than rental. The cooling measures will affect those who are buying a second unit for rental purposes - and those units are typically 1000sqft or less.

So can TC reach such levels? of course! Shunfu is older and not even privatised. There are pros and cons to every estate, it is no better than ours. Watch and wait. As the number of large flats dwindle, TC will become ever more attractive.

Rethink, revamp... RESELL

Rethink, revamp... RESELL
By Koh Hui Theng
THE offer price to buy the development en bloc was below expectations.
So the developer, Melodies Limited, which owns Cassia View, decided to refurbish the place and then resell each unit individually.
The units, which had been rented out, are all owned by the developer.
The company is now expecting to get S$15 million more from the sale of the units.
And with 80 per cent of the units sold so far, the developer looks to be on target.
It started when the 20-storey, 72-unit freehold project on Guillemard Road was put on the market last year.
At that time, it attracted a S$70 million bid, or about S$780 per sq ft (psf) of strata area.
Melodies felt that the offer price was too low.
"We were not pleased with the response as we felt the property could fetch a higher rate," a company spokesman said.
So Melodies decided to spruce up the apartments and sell them individually.
The S$3 million renovation bill it chalked up included refitting kitchens with new tiles, cabinets and appliances.
Bathroom fixtures from high-end brands were installed, doors were changed and bedroom parquet floors were polished.
External walls received a new coat of paint.
Mr Liang Thow Ming, the executive director and head of residential services of Credo Real Estate, which is marketing Cassia View, said: "It's almost a total makeover. The refurbishment was undertaken as it adds more value to the property."
Renovations started in May.
The New Paper  Oct 20, 2010

Oct 22, 2010

MARINE POINT

CapitaLand to acquire Marine Point - CNA 27 Jan 2011
SINGAPORE : CapitaLand has said it will acquire enbloc property Marine Point for S$100.68 million.

The latest acquisition brings CapitaLand's pipeline of homes in Singapore to 2,600 units altogether.

Marine Point, located in the Marine Parade neighbourhood, will be acquired at S$1,056 per square foot per plot ratio. This is inclusive of a development charge of S$12.8 million, said CapitaLand in a statement.

CapitaLand plans to redevelop Marine Point into a distinctive condominium with 150 units, comprising one-bedroom plus study and two-bedroom apartments.

Marine Point sits on a 4,755 square metre (51,185 square feet) freehold site with a maximum gross floor area of 9,986 square metres (107,488 square feet).

Currently, there are 32 units in the existing development.

The Marine Point transaction is expected to take place in third quarter of this year, subject to approval by the Strata Titles Board.

CapitaLand said it will maximise the height of the new development to about 19 storeys.

Wong Heang Fine, chief executive officer of CapitaLand Residential Singapore, said: "This will give the majority of the apartments a good view of the surrounding skyline and the sea. We plan to have the new development ready for launch in the first half of 2012.

He expects strong response from young families and professionals who have grown up in the area.

The Marine Point site is situated along Marine Parade Road, opposite nearby amenities in the Marine Parade Town Centre and Parkway Parade shopping mall.

A range of retail, F&B and entertainment facilities, as well as the popular East Coast Park, are located just minutes away.

The site is near well-known schools such as Tao Nan School, CHIJ (Katong) Primary, Tanjong Katong Girls' School, Ngee Ann Primary School, Victoria School and Victoria Junior College.

It is also easily accessible by major expressways such as East Coast Parkway as well as numerous bus services.



Marine Point up for collective sale with $110m price tag
Business Times - 21 Oct 2010

The indicative price for the 18-storey block works out to $1,116 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr), including an estimated development charge of $10 million.

The project has a site area of 51,185 sq ft and a 2.1 gross plot ratio, giving a maximum gross floor area of 107,489 sq ft.

Marine Point up for collective sale

Marine Point, a freehold 18-storey residential block along Marine Parade Road, is up for collective sale.
Covering an area of more than 50,000 square feet, the site can be re-developed into a 25 storey block to accommodate about 100 apartments averaging 1,000 square feet each.
ERA, which is handling the collective sale, said more than 80 per cent of the owners by share value and strata floor area have signed the collective agreement.
The owners are looking at a collective indicative price of about S$110 million; or about $1,030 per square foot per plot ratio.
An estimated development charge of S$10 million is payable.
The tender for Marine Point closes on November 18, 2010 at 3:30pm.
Source : Channel NewsAsia – 20 Oct 2010

Oct 21, 2010

Very, very interesting...



 ...when the profit motive gets unmoored from the purpose motive, then bad things happen; unethical things.

Oct 20, 2010

Words of wisdom from a CHINA newspaper


En bloc estates: no harmony, no happiness, no security.

Oct 8, 2010

The Immorality of En Bloc

En bloc is always talked about in terms of dollars and cents. You can find on this  blog endless circular discussions about reserve price, selling price, cost of replacement etc. I have tried every angle to persuade people that en bloc is not what it seems. It is not a straightforward process ring fenced by solid rules. It is not a guaranteed windfall. The sale committee members are not all selfless volunteers working for the greater good. The developer-buyer does not make a paltry 10% profit. It is not all over in a few months. All owners are not happy with the results. There are so many different angles from which en bloc can be attacked and I have tried them all.

And yet,  the single most important reservation I have with en bloc has nothing whatsoever to do with price. You see, in my opinion, en bloc is essentially, at it's very heart,  it's very core, deeply immoral.

We are taught from young not to do harm. Civil society depends on personal restraint and a respect for one another's person and belongings.

And yet, harm is what is done when a large group of owners band together to force their unwilling neighbours out of their homes. Group dynamics is such that no individual feels guilt or  shame in selling that which does not belong to them, stuffing money into unhappy owners' bank accounts and telling them to go find somewhere else to stay. People feel no compunction whatsoever in trampling over others in order to reap some monetary gain for themselves.

Those who instigate en bloc cannot fathom this viewpoint since it is government sanctioned and therefore requires no further thought. The Government has taken any stink of impropriety away and replaced it with the smell of money. 

It may be legal, but it is still immoral nonetheless.

The old pro-en bloc argument comparing a general election with en bloc  is a flawed . In a general election, one is voting for a third party and win or lose, there is no actual loss or gain to the voter. In an en bloc vote - the loser (20%) actually loses his most valuable possession, his home. This is a real loss and not quantifiable in monetary terms. The winner tramples over the minority's aspirations, disrupts financial planning, cashes out on a nest egg too early for some, in order to reach his own financial reward. The minority owner, by doing nothing, cannot be accused of acting selfishly for wanting to stay in the home he purchased before his proprietary rights were curtailed, and lived in for perhaps many years. It is not selfish of him to try and keep his possessions, to protect what is his and not agree to enrich his neighbour at his own expense.

To take what is not yours is morally wrong - no matter what financial restitution you make. It is wrong on first principles.

Oct 6, 2010

Shunfu Individual unit sells for $1.1m



Shunfu estate is older than TC (Phase 1, TC is Phase III), is unprivatised, and has no facilities.