1 April 2011
Quelle surprise! Of course there were no bids - there rarely are with the possibility of a Private Treaty afterward.
IF developers are interested in this site at this present time, they will only show their hand after the tender has closed, when owners are feeling a little despondent, when the marketing agents have poured doom and gloom on their hopes and depressed their spirit.
In a tender, the power is with the owners.
In a private treaty, it's the developers who call the shots - and deadlines.
But I have said all this before .......Public tender or private treaty?
No private treaty please unless they can offer higher than RP. Its all a waiting game and psychological battle.
ReplyDeleteWe won't die holding on to our land. But without lands, developers' business will 'die'.
A couple of things to learn from this news:
ReplyDelete1. "not overly concerned at the outcome..." This is important; it means they stay cool. When owners panic, developers will come in for the slaughter
2. One resident was disappointed because she already bought another place. This is a big no no; unless you got plenty of money lying around.
Don't buy another home if you need the proceeds of en-bloc to pay for the new one. This will make you desperate and you'll be forced to sell when en-bloc fails.
3. Take note of what Stella of Jones Lang LaSalle said about each different sites has "its own attributes and developers will evaluate based on their own criteria" - failed Tulip does not press down Tampines Court RP. So don't allow the scare tactics to frighten you to sell.
Credo was the MA... similar guys that brokered Farrer court. Anyone know whether Farrer Court was closed based on private treaty?
ReplyDeletebtw,looks like even with private treaty, a deal cannot be struck.
Market softening?
HUDCs
ReplyDeleteAmberville: 4 bids (2006)
Minton Rise: private treaty $20m below RP
Waterfront View: o bids then private treaty
Gillman Heights: 0 bids then private treaty
Farrer Court: 2 bids
Tampines Court (round 1): 1 bid then private treaty
These are/were all mega sites and so far the buyers are all making mega profit from their acquisitions. Once they reach the break even point they will look around for their next mega project. The supply will dwindle in time.
not only developers make mega profit. buyers of pte property apartments also make mega profit... it is the market :)
ReplyDeleteSome even faster than developers when they flip.
as a rule of thumb, price for enbloc sale should be at a premium of 40% to 50%, than when units are sold individually in order to make some economic sense when it comes to getting a comfortable property replacement. or else no go, and just wait for the next enbloc attempt in the medium term; that is my advice to owners of Tulip Garden(TG); for those who cannot wait, and sell at single-unit price, they would do so at their regret.I would come in to buy, rent out the unit and wait for the next TG enbloc sale, and make 40 to 50% more in a few years time. Remember "he would laugh last, laugh best" and it should be the owners and not the developer. The best is yet to be!
ReplyDeleteRe: as a rule of thumb...
ReplyDeleteThe rule of thumb @ 40% to 50% are set by en-bloc raiders as described by the person how he/she would buy single unit of TG, rent and wait for en-bloc to make 40 to 50%.
That's their SOP (Standard Operating Process / Pricing)
This is their quick buck short-term gains.
TC owners, don't be fooled...
If 'anonymous' were to try and persuade Tampines Courters to sell using his 50% premium hook he would be laughed out of the estate! Let them try!
ReplyDeleteaiyo...please read w/o prejudice.
ReplyDeletemr "rule of thumb" mean that if the proposed valuation of TC does not exceed 40%-50% premium, the enbloc will likely fail and TC should wait for the next enbloc opportunity. He is not setting the RP at 40%-50% premium.
Looking at the defensive responses, I feel that TC is still stuck in the past and not moving forward. c'mon, move on!!
re: aiyo...
ReplyDeleteAnyone knows that when a 'premium' put out at 40-50% it is as good as telling the developers that's the value to get TC - regardless of evaluation. It means that Mr "rule of thumb" minimum RP to go for en-bloc is $1.425mil and that is using $950K per unit at 50% premium.
Hello, any body home?
The 40-50% is the min profit he/she expects, else no en-bloc.
However, for owners it is not about % profit, it is about being able to get similar size home with the same solid location and amenities with the proceeds without downgrading.
TC is not stuck in the past, we have learnt a valuable lesson and damn sure defensive about my treasured home.
Mr "Rule of thumb" replying:
ReplyDeleteAllow to qualify on what I have said, taking TC as an hypothetical and simplistic example. Say, I would buy a TC apartment now close to $1m. By renting it out at about $3k per month would more or less suffice to pay for the monthly housing loan. When the enbloc process gathers positive momentum( ie gathering close to 70%% of approval), price of TC apartment would generally climb up to 20% to 30%. Then reserve price for the enbloc sale should be pegged at a premium of 40 to 50%. If no enbloc, any mind: continue renting it out and wait for the next round. Maybe when I retire, I move it to TC. Understand, now? Every thing is life is about risk and reward, and timeframe.....I am not a ACS boy, but i believe in their school motto: the best is yet to be!
"the price of TC would generally climb up to 20% to 30%"
ReplyDeleteWhen the en bloc process starts, then the number of units sold plummets, and you cannot know the market value of the individual unit. In round 1, there were zero units sold after Oct 2006 - and in 2008, the pro-enbloc group were still quoting that price as the going market rate.
Anyway, once the RP is set, it pretty much freezes everything. So your 20% increase will not happen.
Its true because we got stuck 'in the past' on round 1 which failed. Its a blessing now that we can get much better price. We don't mind be stuck again for round 3 and price will escalate even higher.
ReplyDeleteSo no worry for us being stuck. No need to pull us out. We feel very comfortable.
interesting concept... if price continue to rise, when will it be a good time to enbloc to unlock the value of TC?
ReplyDeleteGoodness, I can hardly believe that there are still some posters who think that the enbloc value is benchmarked against individual sale such as 40-50% or whatever premium. Rubbish. There should be no relationship. Rd 1 told us that the agent hoodwinked us with a 80% premium over individual sale?. The value of TC enbloc price must be benchmarked to the current selling prices of the new units in the vicinity such as Waterfront Isle + some premium for our better location. If we used the new units averaging price as 1000psf for Waterfront Isle + a 10% premium for our better location(how much more is subjective), then use 1100psf x GFA(about 1,970,000sf?)=$2.1B - DC and DP- construction cost-15% profit margin.Then divide by 560 units. That will give us our estimated value for each unit. Assuming DC,DP,construction cost,and 15%profit are fix, we need to know only the varying prices of My Manhattan at Simei, NV Residences and Waterfront Isle prices. My rough calculations show that $950psf= $1.5m for each TC unit, 1100psf=$1.8m and 1200psf = $2m. Thats what most professionals use to calculate their estimated market value. You get 5 pros to work on it, you probably 6 different answers. It is not a straight forward answer. For those posters who call for professional valuers and experts to give us our RP, we have a handful of them staying TC. My estimated cost for a formal valuation report, the price ranges from $50k-100k for our size of estate. The report is valid for 3 months only. Who wants to pay for the report every 3 months? Do not waste good money for such subjective stuff.
ReplyDeleteWhat you are roughly describing is the RESIDUAL LAND VALUE method.
ReplyDelete"do not waste good money"
ReplyDeleteI agree... you will get enough opinion from the MAs during their beauty parade. If your SC play it right, the MAs will probably try to outbid each other by agressive pricing.
Those who propose to that TC pay for the valuation report is just wasting monry.
$50K-$100K means $89 - $178 per unit, quite affordable don't you think?
ReplyDeleteExcept a valuation costs $20-$30k.
ReplyDeleteAnd why divide by 560?
239 units voted yes to start the en bloc. Let them pay for the valuation since they want the estate to go down that road again. Let them put their money where their mouths are.
affordable... But will it be useful. get the marketing agents to do the job.... For free...
ReplyDelete