169 units have been sold in the estate since Aug 2008 (3 of them changed hands twice); that is a 30.18% turnover.
Of these 169 units, 13 were former minority owners making up 2.32%. Since the wave of sell-offs 2008-2011 was unprecedented in the history of TC, it can be assumed that most were disillusioned ex-majority owners who couldn't wait any longer to move on with their lives. There have been fewer sales in 2012 and so, as in 2006, it seems owners are holding off any major decision making until it becomes clearer which way the en bloc wind is blowing. If an owner is thinking about selling then it is unlikely he would sign the contractually binding CSA with it's no-sale clause at this point. You also cannot price in the cost of replacement with any confidence because who knows what the market will be like in 2+ years time. Downgrading is never a problem, just don't let it become your only option..
Now there is no way of knowing how many people have changed their stance since 2008 but it can be assumed that a fair number would have crossed from the 80% to 20% and vice versa. Whether the majority in the estate are pro-en bloc or not remains to be seen. My gut feeling tells me there are far more fence sitters this time round and so the numbers signing on from month to month will be incremental at best. Low figures at the beginning could mean either a lack of interest or an excess of caution. If there is to be any real action, it will happen towards the end of the year or not at all.
Now there is no way of knowing how many people have changed their stance since 2008 but it can be assumed that a fair number would have crossed from the 80% to 20% and vice versa. Whether the majority in the estate are pro-en bloc or not remains to be seen. My gut feeling tells me there are far more fence sitters this time round and so the numbers signing on from month to month will be incremental at best. Low figures at the beginning could mean either a lack of interest or an excess of caution. If there is to be any real action, it will happen towards the end of the year or not at all.
Even the marketing agent activity is low key at the moment. Personally, I have only received a couple of calls from a rather sleepy-sounding agent just reminding me of the signing sessions. I am not complaining; owners can quietly make up their own minds this time round without any badgering or hype.
Looking at today's news:
Bartley Residences see strong demand
8 Blks: 14 -18 storeys, plot ratio 3.08, 702 units, site area 237,822 (only ONE THIRD the size of TC), 99yr LH.
By that definition, we, too, are multi-generational apartments but we cannot hope to afford a similar sized replacement home with the present reserve price. We can only look to downsize in a new estate. It is not just about the size of the new apartment, you must look at how your holding share would be diminished in these overcrowded estates. Why fork out all your 'windfall' plus $X000,000's more to swop your 1/560 share in 2,000,000sqft for 1/702 share in 733,000sqft? It just doesn't make sense to give away all your money and the equity in your home like that.
Looking at today's news:
Bartley Residences see strong demand
'We designed Bartley with the family in mind,” said Chng. “For
example, over 80 percent of the project’s 702 units comprise of
two-bedrooms and more, which are ideal for young families.”
Dual key apartments, sized at 1,603 sq ft, provide extended or
multi-generational families with the opportunity to live together in a
home within a home.'
8 Blks: 14 -18 storeys, plot ratio 3.08, 702 units, site area 237,822 (only ONE THIRD the size of TC), 99yr LH.
By that definition, we, too, are multi-generational apartments but we cannot hope to afford a similar sized replacement home with the present reserve price. We can only look to downsize in a new estate. It is not just about the size of the new apartment, you must look at how your holding share would be diminished in these overcrowded estates. Why fork out all your 'windfall' plus $X000,000's more to swop your 1/560 share in 2,000,000sqft for 1/702 share in 733,000sqft? It just doesn't make sense to give away all your money and the equity in your home like that.
The RP must keep up with rising prices of similarly sized replacement homes in new 99 yr leasehold estates.
your large share is of no value if you do not know how to use it.
ReplyDeleteWhy are you comparing TC with bartley residences? No comparison at all... location, tenure, distance from MRT, facilities, finishing, etc. You get owned badly.
Because Bartley just happens to be in the news today, it could just as well be any other 99yr mass market property. I pass this building site every day, it's in a so-so location (besides being next to the MRT which is a plus point). Nothing else about the project tops TC.
ReplyDeleteThe tenure is 99yrs.
Facilities come at a price paid in monthly fees (typically $250-$350). Those who bought into TC did so in the full knowledge that there were no facilities to speak of and hence pay a monthly fee comparable to that of HDB ( a plus point for us). People who buy into TC and then go around complaining of the lack of facilities ought to be grilled as to why they bought here in the first place!
Finishings are no big deal, plenty of homes in TC have been renovated to a standard higher than that found in a typical mass market project. My bathrooms are beautiful with a full bath in the master bathroom. My kitchen is almost 3 times as big as most new condos. Have you seen the finishings at My Manhattan? "Q: will the floor tiles be the same in the unit as the show flat?" "Ans: No, they will be white ceramic" Q: The showflat comes with no doors, when you put in the doors then there will be no space for the towel rack in the bathroom?" Ans: "Ummm..." There is little variety today, they are all small, glass boxes at close proximity to each other. See one, seen them all.
Your large share is certainly of no value if you trade it away for a downsize or a downgrade.
What does 'you get owned badly' mean?
Out of the 169 units sold, only 3 lucky owners manage to get JUST over a million. The rest hover around $900k ~ 950k.
ReplyDeleteThis is the living proof of what potential buyers preceive the value of TC. Even the current en bloc sale fail to push the price higher.
Like minded developers.......
The TC enbloc efforts has lifted the resale price of TC units to the million dollar mark. It is unlikely that TC enbloc will succeed when the other HUDC enblocs like Pine Grove and Laguna failed. At some point in the future, TC prices will be comparable to executive HDB flats in Tampines as the reducing remaining lease will make it more difficult to attract buyers. TC owners best bet is for the enbloc to succeed.
ReplyDeleteTo succesful, the SC have to be more transparent to update the SP.
ReplyDelete@ The TC enbloc efforts...
ReplyDeleteThe first en-bloc was a few years ago, meaning the remaining lease is lesser now then previous, but prices has gone up. Not necessary because of the en-bloc, but because prices of housing has gone up in pass couple of years in land scarce Singapore. Unless we don't reproduce human beings and take in PRs and foreigners, we are still going to need more housing. People are going to couple up, get married and move out. The same arguments were used previously, that price TC will come down etc.
Let me say, when the new MRT station comes up on line, it will give the TC prices another shot in the arm! Booster..