The Final Push

You can never sound the death knell until all options have been exhausted. There has been a fresh injection of hope with an increased RP. A RP that is potentially attractive to about 50-55% of the owners in the estate -  but that is just my opinion. The SC hopes it is enough for 80%.  

Two more signing sessions are penciled in for Nov, and a letter from the SC Chairman on the Notice Board   (The letter has since been removed).

According to the letter, 21 owners signed the CSA on Tuesday night, accounting for the bustle of activity observed by some readers. The letter goes further and owners are encouraged to sign for the following reasons:

1. TC is getting old. It will be more difficult to sell on your own as time goes on.
2. There is a lot of new developments coming into the market next year which will likely to see a drop in prices.
3. The government is watching the market closely and may introduce further measures , as evidenced by ABSD (additional buyer stamp duty) of 10% tax on developers should their projects no achieve 100% sales within 5 years.
4. Should TC not succeed in the en bloc, the likelihood of upgrading our estate is likely to take place. It will also mean that any attempt for the third en bloc will not take place for another few years, thereby making TC a very old estate.

 Is there some merit to their reasoning?

1. TC is undoubtedly getting older,  but crystal ball gazing is highly subjective and can cut both ways. 

There has been a rapid and healthy turnover of units since 2008, - so, no difficulty selling up to now.  The number of very large units is shrinking in the market, our estate will be one of the few remaining to offer spacious homes at an affordable price. Our selling point - SPACE - is fast becoming a rare commodity and anything rare retains or increases in value. With a predicted increase in population over the coming years, there will be no shortage of takers for Tampines Court units. 

So difficult to sell?  No, not in the foreseeable future.

2. 'There is a lot of new developments coming into the market next year which will likely to see a drop in prices'
In the Tampines/Simei/Pasir Ris/Bedok Reservoir area there have been at least 18 new developments launched since 2008- and our TC price psf continued to rise regardless. When compared with other old 99yr estates in the area, our  trajectory was in line with the market trend, see here.   

99yr launches in our area since 2008

• NV Residences
• The Palette
• Waterfront Waves
• Waterfront Gold
• Waterfront Isle
• Waterfront Key
• Oasis@Elias
• Waterview
• Hedges Park Condominium
• My Manhattan
• Arc@Tampines (EC)
• Archipelago
• The Tampines Trilliant (EC)
• Ripple Bay
• Palm Isles
• Sea Esta
• Watercolours (EC)
• Parc Olympia

There is nothing to indicate that next year's developments will suddenly have an adverse affect.

So, what is in the pipeline for our area?

Recent GLS sites sold in our area (award of tender):

• New Upper Changi Rd (parcel A) (Oct 2012)
• Tanah Merah Kechil Rd (Aug 2012)
• Pasir Ris Dr 3 (Jun 2012)
• Tampines Ave 10 (Parcel A) (May 2012)
• Elias Rd/Pasir Ris Dr 3 (Apr 2012)

Sites on the GLS list but not yet put up for sale

• Tampines Ave 10 (parcel B)
• Tampines Ave 10 (parcel C: reserve list)
• Tampines Ave 10 (parcel D: reserve list)

Look at this!

There are 9 new developments on the drawing board in the grassy area along Tampines Ave 10. This will be the condo belt for Tampines. How fast the government will release these projects for GLS is anyone's guess, but at the rate they are going, I would say over the next 3 years.

In my opinion, these developments will not effect the resale value of individual TC units as we operate in a different market - the resale market, and with our particular set of advantages, we can hold our own. We are not in competition with new units.

No, what these new developments will effect is the collective sale price. With so many GLS sites to choose from, the tender for TC might not attract the RP envisaged by the sales committee. When that happens, the murky mechanism for lowering the RP  - which was never fully explained to owners  - will kick in. 

It has been a long time since owners read the CSA.  I would urge anyone contemplating signing to go back and re-read that document. Be absolutely sure you are happy with the terms and conditions.

3. The government.....10% tax on developers should their projects not achieve 100% sales within 5 years .

Cooling measures up to now have had limited effect (see here)
Next year will be the revision of the 5 year MasterPlan... what if there are some surprises there?
Really, it's pointless to try and second guess the government :)
not achieve 100% sales in 5 yrs: Not a worry for suburban developments yet as they sell like hotcakes. Here is a homespun chart for developments in our area:

4. .... the likelihood of upgrading ...likely to take place... any attempt for a 3rd enbloc will not take place for another few years.

Perhaps owners will be less inclined to sell up and move if they had nice new lifts installed. Upgrading in this light can be seen as a threat to any future collective sale.  On the other hand, it doesn't have to be that way. You can upgrade and go for en bloc, one does not necessarily preclude the other.

If the en bloc fails then there will be a 2 year moratorium before the MCST can hold an EGM for the purpose of collective sale - unless the requisition is signed by 50% in which case it can straightaway hold an EGM.
The actual business of collecting requisition signatures is not constrained by LTSA rules, so that can start at any time and continue for as long as it takes.

Mood is another factor. Will owners be too jaded for round 3?